One Nation’s rise puts the next election in ‘unknown territory’ – but does Pauline Hanson really have a path to government?

Data shows the rightwing party faces an obstacle in the form of urban seats – and the effect of preference flows is harder to predictFollow our Australia news live blog for latest updatesGet our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcastOne Nation’s spectacular rise from a distant 6% of the vote in the last election to first or second in some recent polls has upended Australian politics. It has also made it a lot harder to predict what exactly will happen at the next election.Traditionally, pollsters and election experts would look at how preferences flowed in previous elections when estimating two-party preferred numbers, or translating polling into seat projections. This was fairly predictable when almost every seat would come down to a contest between Labor and the Coalition. Continue reading...