With Japan, China faces a corrosive security dilemma

Japan’s 610-page 2026 defence white paper cements a strategic shift: Tokyo has labelled China an “unprecedented and the greatest strategic challenge” for the fourth straight year, a framing dating back to 2014, when a Japanese white paper first flagged Beijing’s East China Sea Air Defence Identification Zone as risking unintended incidents. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has not altered this trajectory, only accelerated it.
This strategic timing aligns with Beijing’s calculus. Even as US...